Very Cautiously Optimistic

In such a dismal point in American history, it is extremely easy to herd the masses down the slippery slope of "ANY change is better because it can't get any worse." I think a very significant portion of Obama voters are operating under this mindset. Given the current slight majorities in the House and the Senate, Obama will certainly bring change. The question is how much and in which direction. Like Mark, I agree that if Obama manages to pull off half of what he has promised, he will be a successful president. I certainly hope that he makes things better but given the long history of empty promises before him, I must remain very cautiously optimistic.

I like Nate's format and therefore will yoink it. It covers all the major bases of Obama's platform.

Economy/Domestic Issues:

• Tax Breaks for the Middle Class: This is the oldest trick in the book. I believe Obama will issue one and only one stimulus package style tax rebate similar to Bush. After that, I fully expect a crushing President Bush Sr. style 180 reversal and tax increases, for both the middle and upper class, later in Obama's term. It simply cannot add up. With all kinds of local and state governments going bankrupt due to the decrease in tax revenue in light of the downturned economy and housing crisis, the federal government cannot increase services like Social Security (Baby Boomers++) and reduce revenue simultaneously
• Anti-Outsourcing Tax Penalty/Break: I expect this to pass through Congress and signed into law by Obama. However, I also foresee the fundamental inability to enforce this, making it a moot point.
  
• Healthcare Reform: I agree with Nate and expect healthcare to sit on the back burner until the economy improves. For this reason, I expect Obama to attempt to basically reinvent or extend Medicare into a universal government subsidized health insurance at the end of the current term. I predict that the bill will divide Congress, despite the Democratic majority, thus requiring the bill to be perverted into a bailout style fiasco, if it manages to pass at all.
• Alternative Energy: Similar to healthcare, I see Obama following through with his promise to throw money at fuel cell/ethanol/wind/solar energy development. Given my technical background, I prophesize the utter failure of any of these initiatives to create the breakthrough required to create American energy independence or the promised economy revival through job creation. Furthermore, I expect a significant increase in both global warming and nefarious "carbon dioxide" levels despite Al Gore style initiatives to the contrary.
  

War/Foreign Policy:

• Troops in Iraq and Afghanistan: I foresee a much more isolationist approach to foreign policy. I cannot imagine Obama not removing most, if not all, US forces from Iraq during the course of his term. I think there will be a bare minimum peacekeeping style force in Afghanistan "to maintain US interests" in the region.
  
• Free trade: I believe the overwhelming efforts to create jobs will also greatly restrict free trade.
• Terrorism: Anti-American sentiment will most likely remain the same, despite the removal of troops. I expect terrorism to remain as frequent and as severe in scale. Obama, in all likelihood, will continue in the current trend of fascism in the name of "national security".
  

Social / Political Change:

• Race: Granted, Obama's election is historic and will be touted as a landmark in social equality. I fear that it will create a sense of entitlement from assumed literal equality ("If it's an African American's turn to be President, it's time for a Latino President, it's time for a Asian President, etc"). Overall, I expect this to be of no consequence to the open minded, but it will greatly exacerbate any existing stereotypes, preconceptions and racial divisions due to mind-numbing scale of differences in opinions and the stupifying media coverage.

I realize that my bitter skepticism and cynicism will make it sound like I'm some embittered and angry pro-McCain voter. The truth is I feel similarly skeptical and cynical about McCain's platform as well, and really, politicians in general, on all levels. Like Internet scams, I don't really believe there is a man in Nigeria just dying to give me $100 million for a measly $3000 in fees. I similarly believe that no one man, especially in the executive branch of the government, can bring about all this only-better-nothing-worse change. As a lifelong disciple of Murphy, I know things can go wrong, especially now, and they will continue to do so.

What I would view as Change

I've never been great about blogging, so I'm going to keep this short.

I would view real change as giving up short-term partisan gain for logic.

Back in 2005, there were nominations to federal courts that were not entirely palatable to Senate Democrats. The Republicans held a majority, but not a 60-seat majority. This meant that the Democrats could, seemingly, filibuster these candidates. And then, the nuclear option came out. As I Understand It (and I don't particularly care to understand it further), the nuclear option is, roughly: Yes, it takes 60 votes to end this filibuster, but it only take a majority to end the filibuster as a concept.

There was a compromise, as there often is, and the filibuster survived, and the judges were nominated.

But all through this process, roughly everyone acknowledged that this quirk was an unintended loophole.

I want the Democrats to close this loophole.

In the short term, it can only harm the Democrats: it takes an option off the table. But I expect more from my friends than from my opponents. And after all the bitching the Democrats put up, I'd like them to be consistent.

Change is honoring your past by slightly hurting your present.

Is this so crazy?

Change We Can Expect

The Obama campaign billed itself as the campaign of hope this past election. His victory was unprecedented in many ways--in his race, in his comparatively clean, anti-Rovian campaign strategy, and in the wide international support he's garnered, a little more than a month after only winning his party's nomination.

I am very hopeful that the progress made in this election is only the beginning. From everything I've seen so far, Obama's stance is more or less the same as mine--that things are liable to get worse before they get better, that the challenges ahead will define our generation, for better or for worse.

Given what I've seen, I expect the following to happen. The list is by no means comprehensive; rather it reflects what I feel fairly confident predicting with the information I have.


Economy and domestic issues:

• Taxes will increase for the wealthy, and some small tax breaks may happen for the middle and working classes. Originally, he projected only families making more than $250k will be affected by tax raises, but I am not sure the legislature will pass it verbatim.
• Health care reform will wait a couple years. Obama, as much as he may believe in socialized health care, realizes that it won't happen overnight, and furthermore, in the financial crisis we're currently in, it may have to wait until after the storm passes.
• Obama may have the opportunity to appoint a Supreme Court Justice, and if so, with a liberal Senate (though not filibuster-proof), he will likely appoint an experienced but left-leaning Justice who will uphold Roe v. Wade.
• As per what some economists have said and what FDR did during the Depression, economic bailouts will continue to maintain liquidity. It's speculative, but Obama may help to invest in more jobs by providing subsidies for certain industries. I look at green technologies that can provide alternatives to oil as a distinct possibility.
• Going further on green technologies, startups that provide oil alternatives obviously will not be able to absorb the rising unemployment rate. Obama may create a wave of social programs that focus on issues he believes in and which correspond to current pain points in America. I would look in particular for new growth in government jobs in health. My brother voted for Obama in part because as a researcher funded by the National Institutes of Health, his funding is less liable to get cut.
  
• Obama has repeated several times that America is one country, that Wall Street and Main Street are one and the same. He will sponsor legislation that seeks to regulate banking activity, especially the bundling of derivatives and the creation of new tradable instruments for the interest of financial speculation. Alongside this legislation aimed at banking, I also look at a revision of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act governing accounting regulations that will be more comprehensive.
  

War and foreign policy:

• Obama originally did vote against sending troops to Iraq, though he supported them after the US committed the troops. From his victory speech, I get that he will withdraw troops from Iraq and refocus on the war in Afghanistan. Given the economic woes we're in, I actually doubt how dedicated the country can be even on that front.
• Given the huge groundswell in international support, I expect that the very act of having elected him should cut us a little bit of slack for foreign relations. Folks will be more willing to talk with us, and having expressed intent in discussing matters even with Iran, I hope that this is a step towards humanizing Muslims who have been too frequently equated with terrorists in the US.
• I expect not just that the foreign relations that were difficult these past 8 years will improve, but I also expect terrorism itself to decrease. Terrorism will continue to exist, of course, but with a country whose ideology has become more difficult to paint as the "infidel," it will be harder for extremist organizations to recruit to their cause. In this case, Obama is himself a symbol of an America that is progressing and growing more accepting and open-minded.

Social and political change:

• Obama is a historic candidate. This is not just because of race but also, as mentioned earlier, because of his clean political strategy as well as the international tenor which underscores not just his background but the atmosphere of what the presidential campaign has grown to become. In the future, those who seek to become President may not only have to take into account the attitudes within US geographical bounds but also attitudes abroad. With how connected we've become, it may not be possible to alienate international countries as a candidate yet manage to appeal to citizens.
• The right-wing Christian conservative movement, thankfully, should lose a lot of the momentum they gained with such a strongly theocratic President as Bush. I always regarded religion in the US as one the more dangerous institutions, one that actively propagates ignorance as faith and encourages the type of extremism which escalates wars.
• In terms of racial relations in the US, Obama's victory is certainly historic, and issues should improve going forward. Race, I hope, will be used less as an excuse for those who would rather blame disadvantage on circumstance over discipline. That said, Obama alone will not eliminate racial tensions in the country.
• Comedians will have a much harder time with Obama than with any President in the past 20 years.

All things considered, I am very hopeful and looking forward to seeing these expectations pan out. Obama is an inspiring person. As sad as it may be to say, though, such a brilliant, optimistic, and multicultural individual could likely never get elected in times of prosperity. In dire times, it is natural: we seek whatever hope we can and latch onto it much more strongly than we usually would. I am hopeful but cautious about the future, one which I acknowledge will be a road more difficult than anything in my lifetime.

Introduction

As I was walking down the hall today, I told my coworker that if Obama accomplishes half the things he has promised to do, he will be a great President. This is a catalog of the hopes that people have as we go into 2009.