Change We Can Expect

The Obama campaign billed itself as the campaign of hope this past election. His victory was unprecedented in many ways--in his race, in his comparatively clean, anti-Rovian campaign strategy, and in the wide international support he's garnered, a little more than a month after only winning his party's nomination.

I am very hopeful that the progress made in this election is only the beginning. From everything I've seen so far, Obama's stance is more or less the same as mine--that things are liable to get worse before they get better, that the challenges ahead will define our generation, for better or for worse.

Given what I've seen, I expect the following to happen. The list is by no means comprehensive; rather it reflects what I feel fairly confident predicting with the information I have.


Economy and domestic issues:

• Taxes will increase for the wealthy, and some small tax breaks may happen for the middle and working classes. Originally, he projected only families making more than $250k will be affected by tax raises, but I am not sure the legislature will pass it verbatim.
• Health care reform will wait a couple years. Obama, as much as he may believe in socialized health care, realizes that it won't happen overnight, and furthermore, in the financial crisis we're currently in, it may have to wait until after the storm passes.
• Obama may have the opportunity to appoint a Supreme Court Justice, and if so, with a liberal Senate (though not filibuster-proof), he will likely appoint an experienced but left-leaning Justice who will uphold Roe v. Wade.
• As per what some economists have said and what FDR did during the Depression, economic bailouts will continue to maintain liquidity. It's speculative, but Obama may help to invest in more jobs by providing subsidies for certain industries. I look at green technologies that can provide alternatives to oil as a distinct possibility.
• Going further on green technologies, startups that provide oil alternatives obviously will not be able to absorb the rising unemployment rate. Obama may create a wave of social programs that focus on issues he believes in and which correspond to current pain points in America. I would look in particular for new growth in government jobs in health. My brother voted for Obama in part because as a researcher funded by the National Institutes of Health, his funding is less liable to get cut.
  
• Obama has repeated several times that America is one country, that Wall Street and Main Street are one and the same. He will sponsor legislation that seeks to regulate banking activity, especially the bundling of derivatives and the creation of new tradable instruments for the interest of financial speculation. Alongside this legislation aimed at banking, I also look at a revision of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act governing accounting regulations that will be more comprehensive.
  

War and foreign policy:

• Obama originally did vote against sending troops to Iraq, though he supported them after the US committed the troops. From his victory speech, I get that he will withdraw troops from Iraq and refocus on the war in Afghanistan. Given the economic woes we're in, I actually doubt how dedicated the country can be even on that front.
• Given the huge groundswell in international support, I expect that the very act of having elected him should cut us a little bit of slack for foreign relations. Folks will be more willing to talk with us, and having expressed intent in discussing matters even with Iran, I hope that this is a step towards humanizing Muslims who have been too frequently equated with terrorists in the US.
• I expect not just that the foreign relations that were difficult these past 8 years will improve, but I also expect terrorism itself to decrease. Terrorism will continue to exist, of course, but with a country whose ideology has become more difficult to paint as the "infidel," it will be harder for extremist organizations to recruit to their cause. In this case, Obama is himself a symbol of an America that is progressing and growing more accepting and open-minded.

Social and political change:

• Obama is a historic candidate. This is not just because of race but also, as mentioned earlier, because of his clean political strategy as well as the international tenor which underscores not just his background but the atmosphere of what the presidential campaign has grown to become. In the future, those who seek to become President may not only have to take into account the attitudes within US geographical bounds but also attitudes abroad. With how connected we've become, it may not be possible to alienate international countries as a candidate yet manage to appeal to citizens.
• The right-wing Christian conservative movement, thankfully, should lose a lot of the momentum they gained with such a strongly theocratic President as Bush. I always regarded religion in the US as one the more dangerous institutions, one that actively propagates ignorance as faith and encourages the type of extremism which escalates wars.
• In terms of racial relations in the US, Obama's victory is certainly historic, and issues should improve going forward. Race, I hope, will be used less as an excuse for those who would rather blame disadvantage on circumstance over discipline. That said, Obama alone will not eliminate racial tensions in the country.
• Comedians will have a much harder time with Obama than with any President in the past 20 years.

All things considered, I am very hopeful and looking forward to seeing these expectations pan out. Obama is an inspiring person. As sad as it may be to say, though, such a brilliant, optimistic, and multicultural individual could likely never get elected in times of prosperity. In dire times, it is natural: we seek whatever hope we can and latch onto it much more strongly than we usually would. I am hopeful but cautious about the future, one which I acknowledge will be a road more difficult than anything in my lifetime.