I like Nate's format and therefore will yoink it. It covers all the major bases of Obama's platform.
Economy/Domestic Issues:
- Tax Breaks for the Middle Class: This is the oldest trick in the book. I believe Obama will issue one and only one stimulus package style tax rebate similar to Bush. After that, I fully expect a crushing President Bush Sr. style 180 reversal and tax increases, for both the middle and upper class, later in Obama's term. It simply cannot add up. With all kinds of local and state governments going bankrupt due to the decrease in tax revenue in light of the downturned economy and housing crisis, the federal government cannot increase services like Social Security (Baby Boomers++) and reduce revenue simultaneously
- Anti-Outsourcing Tax Penalty/Break: I expect this to pass through Congress and signed into law by Obama. However, I also foresee the fundamental inability to enforce this, making it a moot point.
- Healthcare Reform: I agree with Nate and expect healthcare to sit on the back burner until the economy improves. For this reason, I expect Obama to attempt to basically reinvent or extend Medicare into a universal government subsidized health insurance at the end of the current term. I predict that the bill will divide Congress, despite the Democratic majority, thus requiring the bill to be perverted into a bailout style fiasco, if it manages to pass at all.
- Alternative Energy: Similar to healthcare, I see Obama following through with his promise to throw money at fuel cell/ethanol/wind/solar energy development. Given my technical background, I prophesize the utter failure of any of these initiatives to create the breakthrough required to create American energy independence or the promised economy revival through job creation. Furthermore, I expect a significant increase in both global warming and nefarious "carbon dioxide" levels despite Al Gore style initiatives to the contrary.
War/Foreign Policy:
- Troops in Iraq and Afghanistan: I foresee a much more isolationist approach to foreign policy. I cannot imagine Obama not removing most, if not all, US forces from Iraq during the course of his term. I think there will be a bare minimum peacekeeping style force in Afghanistan "to maintain US interests" in the region.
- Free trade: I believe the overwhelming efforts to create jobs will also greatly restrict free trade.
- Terrorism: Anti-American sentiment will most likely remain the same, despite the removal of troops. I expect terrorism to remain as frequent and as severe in scale. Obama, in all likelihood, will continue in the current trend of fascism in the name of "national security".
- Race: Granted, Obama's election is historic and will be touted as a landmark in social equality. I fear that it will create a sense of entitlement from assumed literal equality ("If it's an African American's turn to be President, it's time for a Latino President, it's time for a Asian President, etc"). Overall, I expect this to be of no consequence to the open minded, but it will greatly exacerbate any existing stereotypes, preconceptions and racial divisions due to mind-numbing scale of differences in opinions and the stupifying media coverage.
1 comment:
17 Months Later. Time for an Update.
Be sure to include not just the promised change items but also the achieved change, the inevitable change, the unexpected change.
Discus areas such as: the aversion or postponement of the War with Iran, with N. Korea.
When you cite the continuation of terrorism don't for get the adoption by new groups such as the Chechen bombings in Early 2010. Perhaps, more importantly, you should expect terrorism to continue when the only prevention was an after the fact military bandaid/invasion. No efforts made to redirect the petro-dollar profits away from madrases.
The inevitable, no more retaliatory treason such as the outing of Valerie Plame. This is a more important change than most can realize, if such violent retribution and in-fighting were to continue at an institutional level it would tear the fabric of the nation apart.
Redirecting the flow of newly printed money from the War Profiteers to domestic give-aways, that's a big change.
Of course healthcare was a cluster, all big Legislation in congress is. Pork and favor is the standard operating procedure for the institution called congress. Only the line item veto can create the type of change to shift the paradigm.
Energy is the next big one. Taking Government out of Energy would be the best change. The subsidies in the form of tax-breaks for Solar restricts adoption to the rich. Supply-side economic policy would remove the red-tape and barriers to entry.
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